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Author Topic: London overtakes Newyork in Murder rate  (Read 602 times)
Staffordshire Knot
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« on: April 02, 2018, 01:50:09 am »

A spike in violent crime in London saw more murders committed in the city in February and March than there were in New York, figures show.

So far in 2018, 46 people have been fatally stabbed, shot or injured in London compared with 50 in the US city. But, while New York's rate month-on-month has decreased since January, London's is on the rise.

Ex-Met Police Ch Supt Leroy Logan says it is proof that "London's violent traits have become a virus".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-43610936

This is what the Police have been warning about for the past few years.

Cuts to Policing have very serious consequences.
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Dutch Rosie
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2018, 03:15:25 am »

That is shocking, Staff.

Have the stats been analysed and what are the conclusions?

Murder in the Netherlands is low, around 100 per year in the whole country. Many are due to psychotic people on the loose and also a lot are part of drugs wars liquidations.
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ymrader
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 09:53:57 am »

Yeah its made the news but its hardly Rio de Janiero.

How many are kids ?
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Red Herring
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2018, 10:20:05 am »

Yet another thing we do better in London than New York. They should be ashamed of themselves, we don't even have guns  Cool

Seriously though, this is just another example of media hype. Statistically, 46 people out of a population of nearly 9 million is not mathematically significant - even if the previous year was 23 people (hence a 'spike' of 100%) over all the numbers are so small as a percentage that they can't be taken to indicate a general trend as opposed to a run of bad luck. It's just innumerate reporting.

This should help put the supposed 'spike' in perspective:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London



Even if we multiply the 46 by four, assuming that we will have the same number every quarter the 'spike' is from 130 to 184, which is comparable to the 1996 - '97 'spike' of  139 - 190.

And if you think of the murder rate as a percentage of London's population it has been going down year on year.

Red

« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 10:49:49 am by Red Herring » Logged
ymrader
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2018, 04:35:44 am »

Yet another thing we do better in London than New York. They should be ashamed of themselves, we don't even have guns  Cool

Seriously though, this is just another example of media hype. Statistically, 46 people out of a population of nearly 9 million is not mathematically significant - even if the previous year was 23 people (hence a 'spike' of 100%) over all the numbers are so small as a percentage that they can't be taken to indicate a general trend as opposed to a run of bad luck. It's just innumerate reporting.

This should help put the supposed 'spike' in perspective:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London



Even if we multiply the 46 by four, assuming that we will have the same number every quarter the 'spike' is from 130 to 184, which is comparable to the 1996 - '97 'spike' of  139 - 190.

And if you think of the murder rate as a percentage of London's population it has been going down year on year.

Red



A bit like terrorism...
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Alte Dame, Alte Dame
Hertha BSC, so schön ist dein Name!
Die Farben Blau-Weiß,
die Trikots gestreift,
im Herzen weht nur eins:
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drippinhun
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2018, 02:30:18 pm »

I bet the victims' mothers didn't find the statistics to be insignificant.
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"Of all the preposterous assumptions of humanity over humanity, nothing exceeds the criticsms made on the habits of the poor by the well-housed, well-warmed, and well-fed." Herman Melville.

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Dutch Rosie
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2018, 02:23:43 am »

I bet the victims' mothers didn't find the statistics to be insignificant.

True. You beat me to it, Drip.
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ymrader
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2018, 05:22:01 am »

I bet the victims' mothers didn't find the statistics to be insignificant.

You can say that about anything
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Alte Dame, Alte Dame
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Die Farben Blau-Weiß,
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Dutch Rosie
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2018, 06:04:37 am »

You can say that about anything

Yeah, I remember the little 6th form shits at school arguing that on the whole, the Chernobyl disaster was not really a disaster and that a great fuss was being made out of nothing significant.
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ymrader
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2018, 06:56:23 am »

Yeah, I remember the little 6th form shits at school arguing that on the whole, the Chernobyl disaster was not really a disaster and that a great fuss was being made out of nothing significant.

eh ?

Is 50 murders in a population of 9m significant ?

There was that many killed on bikes, dont remember the fuss about that. I'm sure their mothers dont find it insignificant either.

 Roll Eyes
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Alte Dame, Alte Dame
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Die Farben Blau-Weiß,
die Trikots gestreift,
im Herzen weht nur eins:
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Red Herring
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2018, 08:08:31 am »

I bet the victims' mothers didn't find the statistics to be insignificant.

Of course not, which is why it's a good thing they won't be deciding policy.

Good policy can be informed by the concerns of victims of course, but it needs to be based on sound information and analysis.

Red
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Red Herring
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2018, 10:52:35 am »

You can say that about anything

It's a transparent deflection tactic, used when the numbers don't justify the hype.

Basic communications - people don't respond to reason and statistical analysis anything like as much as they do to sensationalist headlines and human interest stories. Whenever I work with our media team they just want a sad story - however unrepresentative it is.

Another murder in Hackney, 5 minutes from my front door. I was woken in the night by a police helicopter overhead. Am I sad? Of course. Do I feel for the victims mother? Of course. Do I think it's a London crisis? Of course not. It's just business as usual, we usually get a murder every quarter or so, but not being innumerate I know that a couple extra in a month doesn't constitute a crime wave.

When they interview concerned Hackney residents who claim to fear for their lives I just wonder how long they've been wearing a blindfold. It's always been a rough borough FFS.

Red
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ymrader
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2018, 05:24:08 pm »

It's a transparent deflection tactic, used when the numbers don't justify the hype.

Basic communications - people don't respond to reason and statistical analysis anything like as much as they do to sensationalist headlines and human interest stories. Whenever I work with our media team they just want a sad story - however unrepresentative it is.

Another murder in Hackney, 5 minutes from my front door. I was woken in the night by a police helicopter overhead. Am I sad? Of course. Do I feel for the victims mother? Of course. Do I think it's a London crisis? Of course not. It's just business as usual, we usually get a murder every quarter or so, but not being innumerate I know that a couple extra in a month doesn't constitute a crime wave.

When they interview concerned Hackney residents who claim to fear for their lives I just wonder how long they've been wearing a blindfold. It's always been a rough borough FFS.

Red

Move to Fulham chief Huh??
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Alte Dame, Alte Dame
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Die Farben Blau-Weiß,
die Trikots gestreift,
im Herzen weht nur eins:
Unsere Fahne!
Red Herring
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2018, 06:26:05 am »

Move to Fulham chief Huh??

Can't stand West London, especially the 'nice parts'. I went to school in Harrogate remember? Safe, green and leafy suburbia is not my cup of cocoa.

Any way, it's perfectly safe. As you know, statistically I put myself in much greater danger by cycling to work than I do by living in Hackney - and provided we don't get caught up with the wrong crowd, the violence is highly unlikely to affect us directly.

Remember when you and the Frau came to visit, and when we picked up my sons bike there were a couple of kids trying to pick the lock? Cheesy

Red
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ymrader
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« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2018, 07:36:47 am »

Can't stand West London, especially the 'nice parts'. I went to school in Harrogate remember? Safe, green and leafy suburbia is not my cup of cocoa.

Any way, it's perfectly safe. As you know, statistically I put myself in much greater danger by cycling to work than I do by living in Hackney - and provided we don't get caught up with the wrong crowd, the violence is highly unlikely to affect us directly.

Remember when you and the Frau came to visit, and when we picked up my sons bike there were a couple of kids trying to pick the lock? Cheesy

Red

My neighbours flat is like fort Knox. I'm saying what's wrong with you man!

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Alte Dame, Alte Dame
Hertha BSC, so schön ist dein Name!
Die Farben Blau-Weiß,
die Trikots gestreift,
im Herzen weht nur eins:
Unsere Fahne!
Red Herring
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2018, 10:51:10 am »

My neighbours flat is like fort Knox. I'm saying what's wrong with you man!



What's wrong with your neighbour?!

Here's a voice of sanity:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/solutions-london-murder-surge-new-york-crackdown

Red
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ymrader
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2018, 03:33:38 pm »

Can't stand West London, especially the 'nice parts'. I went to school in Harrogate remember? Safe, green and leafy suburbia is not my cup of cocoa.

Any way, it's perfectly safe. As you know, statistically I put myself in much greater danger by cycling to work than I do by living in Hackney - and provided we don't get caught up with the wrong crowd, the violence is highly unlikely to affect us directly.

Remember when you and the Frau came to visit, and when we picked up my sons bike there were a couple of kids trying to pick the lock? Cheesy

Red

Yeah well I am doing it in reverse to you.  Smiley
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Alte Dame, Alte Dame
Hertha BSC, so schön ist dein Name!
Die Farben Blau-Weiß,
die Trikots gestreift,
im Herzen weht nur eins:
Unsere Fahne!
Dutch Rosie
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« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2018, 02:44:16 am »

On BBC news this morning: the problem appears to be not a shortage of cops, Staff, but of cops who are reluctant to carry out stop and searches.

I lived in Notting Hill in the 60s and 70s, and despite its bad name, we were never afraid of each other, but were very scared of the cops, who were as spiteful and nasty as hell and framed anyone they fancied, or arrested them and knocked hell out of them back at the station. I was stopped and searched once by a young policewoman, clearly just getting a bit of practice in, since I was perfectly innocent and harmless. Stop and search was not even legal at that time.
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Quelor
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« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2018, 11:08:59 am »

I like this graph...



I think the better point of the story is that NYC is meeting London, not that London is meeting NYC.
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Dutch Rosie
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« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2018, 02:29:43 pm »

What is the explanation. if any, for the huge reduction in NY murders since  1990?
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Mr Angry
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« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2018, 01:45:46 pm »

What is the explanation. if any, for the huge reduction in NY murders since  1990?
All the easy targets have already been taken?
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Don't believe everything you think.
drippinhun
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The good old U.S. - living in a kakistocracy


« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2018, 05:25:47 pm »

What is the explanation. if any, for the huge reduction in NY murders since  1990?

The internet. Aggressive murdering type thugs can now take out their hate on chat boards or comment sections.
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"Of all the preposterous assumptions of humanity over humanity, nothing exceeds the criticsms made on the habits of the poor by the well-housed, well-warmed, and well-fed." Herman Melville.

Trump drains swamp and installs open-air septic tank.
Quelor
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« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2018, 09:29:41 pm »

What is the explanation. if any, for the huge reduction in NY murders since  1990?

Not just murders, but overall crime is drastically down, too.  From what I understand, criminologists don't agree on any reason.  A lot of it was attributed to the adoption of the "broken windows" theory, in that cracking down on visible signs of lawlessness helps create a sense of law and makes major crime less likely.  It was adopted by Guiliani and his new police chief Bill Bratton. But they came in in 93 and crime/murder started declining before that, and some of the policies have since stopped with the current mayor (e.g., stop and frisk ended) and crime is still declining.  I know Bratton has talked about the importance of Compstat, which I wouldn't be able to explain, but basically it computerized statistical data that the police would then use.  Other factors like the end of the crack epidemic and the general health of the economy have also been attributed as cause.  
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 09:41:46 pm by Quelor » Logged

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drippinhun
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The good old U.S. - living in a kakistocracy


« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2018, 12:31:27 am »

Maybe most of the criminals have been put in prison for the longest term - free enterprise and privatization being as such.
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"Of all the preposterous assumptions of humanity over humanity, nothing exceeds the criticsms made on the habits of the poor by the well-housed, well-warmed, and well-fed." Herman Melville.

Trump drains swamp and installs open-air septic tank.
Dutch Rosie
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« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2018, 02:43:33 am »

Not just murders, but overall crime is drastically down, too.  From what I understand, criminologists don't agree on any reason.  A lot of it was attributed to the adoption of the "broken windows" theory, in that cracking down on visible signs of lawlessness helps create a sense of law and makes major crime less likely.  It was adopted by Guiliani and his new police chief Bill Bratton. But they came in in 93 and crime/murder started declining before that, and some of the policies have since stopped with the current mayor (e.g., stop and frisk ended) and crime is still declining.  I know Bratton has talked about the importance of Compstat, which I wouldn't be able to explain, but basically it computerized statistical data that the police would then use.  Other factors like the end of the crack epidemic and the general health of the economy have also been attributed as cause.  

Thank you Quelor. Ah, yes, Guiliani, he did a lot to clean up NY.

I didn't know that the crack epidemic was over. I had the impression that crack, heroin and coke were well established and rising in the States.
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