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Author Topic: Brexit: best outcome  (Read 606 times)
Mister Fantastic
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« on: June 27, 2017, 02:36:04 pm »

1. Brexit total success: We pull out entirely and prosper beyond our wildest dreams.
2. Brexit disaster:It all goes tits up and the EU humiliate and punish us and lock us into the EU forever.

What do you all hope for?

Number one for me obviously as I'm British.
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Dr Taj Hargey, Chairman, Muslim Education Centre Oxford :
No, but... I've just mentioned that, we have a one vocabulary in private and we have another vocabulary for the public domain, and that's why you don't hear it because you're the public domain.
Snotty
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2017, 11:17:56 am »

2
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Weyland
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2017, 11:41:14 am »

Number 1 is impossible, obviously. Number 2 is what "we" deserve, but just another of your many notorious fantasies.

I like the lock-in bit, though.  Cool
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"Theresa May’s determination to pursue hard Brexit = stepping off a 10m diving board without checking there is any water in the pool."
First-Time-Ever Department: The UK is negotiating with the rest of the EU in order to secure a worse trade deal than we already have.
Mister Fantastic
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2017, 12:57:54 pm »

2

Explain why you want us to fail?

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Dr Taj Hargey, Chairman, Muslim Education Centre Oxford :
No, but... I've just mentioned that, we have a one vocabulary in private and we have another vocabulary for the public domain, and that's why you don't hear it because you're the public domain.
Snotty
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Science Fiction rules,you know it makes sense


« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2017, 01:08:25 pm »

Explain why you want us to fail?



I don't want us to fail,just joking,but I really do fear,if it goes ahead,we will
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Mister Fantastic
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2017, 01:11:55 pm »

I don't want us to fail,just joking,but I really do fear,if it goes ahead,we will
Smiley
At least 4 on he do want it to fail, it's unbelievable.
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Dr Taj Hargey, Chairman, Muslim Education Centre Oxford :
No, but... I've just mentioned that, we have a one vocabulary in private and we have another vocabulary for the public domain, and that's why you don't hear it because you're the public domain.
everso
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MR. PHILLIPS


« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2017, 01:24:38 pm »

Smiley
At least 4 on he do want it to fail, it's unbelievable.

I can't actually believe that, as it will affect everyone in the UK if it does fail.  I suppose they'll be gratified to know they were right though.   Smiley

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Weyland
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2017, 01:25:19 pm »

Smiley
At least 4 on he do want it to fail, it's unbelievable.

I don't. I want it to be as if it never happened. For the good of the UK. What you want is failure.
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"Theresa May’s determination to pursue hard Brexit = stepping off a 10m diving board without checking there is any water in the pool."
First-Time-Ever Department: The UK is negotiating with the rest of the EU in order to secure a worse trade deal than we already have.
Snotty
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Science Fiction rules,you know it makes sense


« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2017, 01:34:29 pm »

I hope Brexit will not go ahead because I really do think it will be bad for us.
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ben wedge
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2017, 03:04:20 pm »

I hope Brexit will not go ahead because I really do think it will be bad for us.

Me too, but if it does go ahead I hope it will be a great success. I think we will survive alright but we will have a tough 10 years before that - and we will hopefully come tpo realise that we are no longer a world power and stop trying to pretend that we are

One question that puzzles me a little is why there is this talk of use 'owing' the EU £50 billion if we leave

Surely having been a net contributor from the minute we joined we should be due a % of the assets of the EU on leaving, rather than compensating them? Can anyone talk me through that?

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Lone Ranger
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2017, 03:35:19 am »

Me too, but if it does go ahead I hope it will be a great success. I think we will survive alright but we will have a tough 10 years before that - and we will hopefully come tpo realise that we are no longer a world power and stop trying to pretend that we are

One question that puzzles me a little is why there is this talk of use 'owing' the EU £50 billion if we leave

Surely having been a net contributor from the minute we joined we should be due a % of the assets of the EU on leaving, rather than compensating them? Can anyone talk me through that?

Absolutely nothing to worry about, Ben. Our ace negotiators will fix the whole thing in the blink of a decade, and knock it down to 100 billion or so. Trust them.
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"Theresa May’s determination to pursue hard Brexit = stepping off a 10m diving board without checking there is any water in the pool."
First-Time-Ever Department: The UK is negotiating with the rest of the EU in order to secure a worse trade deal than we already have.
ben wedge
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2017, 11:12:48 am »

Absolutely nothing to worry about, Ben. Our ace negotiators will fix the whole thing in the blink of a decade, and knock it down to 100 billion or so. Trust them.

I have as much faith in them as you do Grin

Seriously though, how do we owe them?

What for?

What about a share of the assets - surely there are some after all these years?

Explain it to a simpleton just this once
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Lone Ranger
mikado
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2017, 11:24:57 am »

I have as much faith in them as you do Grin

Seriously though, how do we owe them?

What for?

What about a share of the assets - surely there are some after all these years?

Explain it to a simpleton just this once

The EU doesn't have net assets, it has net liabilities. These liabilities include the pensions of EU employees and spending commitments to ongoing projects, as well as covering the bill for previous stuff where the EU borrowed money to finance the project. See for example:

http://bruegel.org/2017/03/the-uks-brexit-bill-what-are-the-possible-liabilities/
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ben wedge
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« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2017, 04:23:40 pm »

The EU doesn't have net assets, it has net liabilities. These liabilities include the pensions of EU employees and spending commitments to ongoing projects, as well as covering the bill for previous stuff where the EU borrowed money to finance the project. See for example:

http://bruegel.org/2017/03/the-uks-brexit-bill-what-are-the-possible-liabilities/

Understood....but the EU does HAVE assets. Assets to which we have contributed

For example, property (buildings etc), repayments on loans of 56 billion euros made by the EU with interest (these will be coming in for decades), CASH (estimated at around 22 billion euros), such things as the ECB, EIB etc, outstanding debts of other member countries (est. 10.3 billion euro)

Total EU assets as of 2015 were estimated at 154 billion euro

If you are saying that a proportion of those will be refunded, thus reducing our 'leaving fine', then I guess we will have to pay up and smile....but I have seen no mention of assets, only liabilities

If the EU has survived this long by borrowing money then it really is no different to our own domestic economy - living beyond it's means by borrowing.

Seems a recipe for disaster to me. When is the EU estimated to be able to balance it's budget - or is it considered that it has a limitless line of credit and can continue borrowing indefinitely?

Borrowing to balance our domestic budget whilst paying to be a member of an organisation which then borrows even more money on our behalf does not appear very sensible to me. Perhaps we will be better off out of it before it all goes t*ts up

Total EU assets are estimated to be
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Lone Ranger
mikado
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« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2017, 04:49:36 am »

I assume that if the UK agrees to share the EU's liabilities (and I don't think it's certain the UK will) then they will calculate on the basis of net liabilities.  I don't think that even Davis and Johnson are thick enough to pony up for the liabilities whilst leaving all the assets with the EU.

EU spending mirrors governmental spending, which mirrors domestic spending. Mortgages, student loans, hire purchase, credit cards - all to do with getting the goodies today and paying tomorrow. Up to a point that's not a bad thing.  The EU has been accursed of being financially irresponsible (accounts never signed off, if I recall correctly) but arguably that's as much our (UK government's) fault as anyone's as the national governments should be controlling what the EU does.
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ben wedge
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« Reply #15 on: July 04, 2017, 11:36:17 am »

I assume that if the UK agrees to share the EU's liabilities (and I don't think it's certain the UK will) then they will calculate on the basis of net liabilities.  I don't think that even Davis and Johnson are thick enough to pony up for the liabilities whilst leaving all the assets with the EU.

EU spending mirrors governmental spending, which mirrors domestic spending. Mortgages, student loans, hire purchase, credit cards - all to do with getting the goodies today and paying tomorrow. Up to a point that's not a bad thing.  The EU has been accursed of being financially irresponsible (accounts never signed off, if I recall correctly) but arguably that's as much our (UK government's) fault as anyone's as the national governments should be controlling what the EU does.

I totally understand your point - and agree to a certain degree

I am looking at it from the view that the UK provides (provided) some one eighth of the total revenue of the EU and has done so for decades

That money has gone somewhere - and I naively assume that it was used to increase the 'value' of the EU as a whole. Whether that was spent on assisting poorer members or improving infrastructure in certain countries is pretty irrelevant to the point that that expenditure, by improving conditions in that member country it must also improve the 'wealth' of the EU as a whole, surely?

If we are to be held liable for expenditure due to be made in 5 years time (some years after we will have Brexited and will not benefit from) then by the same token we should be due a share of the increased value of the U which we have contributed so much to

For example, I understand that we are expected to continue as 'guarantor' for the EU Central Bank - even though we will have no control over what it spends on or what loans it makes

At the very least we should lay claim to at least one eighth of the wine lake, butter mountain, antique books, works of art and vintage wines and spirits secreted away in the EU properties Grin
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Lone Ranger
mikado
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« Reply #16 on: July 04, 2017, 01:58:34 pm »

I totally understand your point - and agree to a certain degree

I am looking at it from the view that the UK provides (provided) some one eighth of the total revenue of the EU and has done so for decades

That money has gone somewhere - and I naively assume that it was used to increase the 'value' of the EU as a whole. Whether that was spent on assisting poorer members or improving infrastructure in certain countries is pretty irrelevant to the point that that expenditure, by improving conditions in that member country it must also improve the 'wealth' of the EU as a whole, surely?

If we are to be held liable for expenditure due to be made in 5 years time (some years after we will have Brexited and will not benefit from) then by the same token we should be due a share of the increased value of the U which we have contributed so much to

For example, I understand that we are expected to continue as 'guarantor' for the EU Central Bank - even though we will have no control over what it spends on or what loans it makes

At the very least we should lay claim to at least one eighth of the wine lake, butter mountain, antique books, works of art and vintage wines and spirits secreted away in the EU properties Grin

I like your thinking Ben.  One quarter of Strasbourg is belong to us!

I think it's a fair point you're making and I daresay that the UK negotiators will be arguing along those lines.  I suppose the counter-argument is that the investment in the poorer countries was always intended to be more of a gift than a loan to be repaid at a later stage.
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What Larks
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« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2017, 01:35:51 am »

If you join a club which pays for buildings and equipment out of subscriptions, you don't ask for your money back when you leave, do you?
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ben wedge
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« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2017, 10:24:20 am »

If you join a club which pays for buildings and equipment out of subscriptions, you don't ask for your money back when you leave, do you?

Generally speaking, no you don't........then again you don't usually have to pay the club for FUTURE expenses they may incur after you have left

We have paid all our dues so far (unlike some member States), why give them cash that they can spend on whatever they like and we will have no say in such expenditure.

My thoughts are that when you leave, your commitment to contribute ends

Seems reasonable

Using the same argument, should Scotland go independent we should require them to continue to pay towards rump UK expenses (after all according to Riot & co. they are subsidising us and we will struggle without them Grin)
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Lone Ranger
mikado
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2017, 12:28:31 pm »

Generally speaking, no you don't........then again you don't usually have to pay the club for FUTURE expenses they may incur after you have left

I think that if you were a senior member of the club committee that agreed to reroof the clubhouse, and the day after you signed up a contractor you tell everyone you're quitting and will not be sharing the cost, the other club members might be a bit cheesed off.

I do like the idea that if Scotland became independent the rUK might continue to send the Scots bills for Buck Palace, High Speed 2 and the Westminster refurb.
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No fear, no hate, no pain, no broken hearts
What Larks
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« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2017, 01:58:10 am »

If the EU ever breaks up (and it shows no sign of doing so) it would be fair to share assets not only among existing members but also the UK, even if it had left by then. 
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If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to.”
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Weyland
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~~ Thank you, Rafa! ~~


« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2017, 03:06:10 am »

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"Theresa May’s determination to pursue hard Brexit = stepping off a 10m diving board without checking there is any water in the pool."
First-Time-Ever Department: The UK is negotiating with the rest of the EU in order to secure a worse trade deal than we already have.
everso
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MR. PHILLIPS


« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2017, 07:55:32 am »



Love that!    Cheesy
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ben wedge
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« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2017, 11:27:40 am »

Cat is looking at the door and wondering why the hell he should have to pay to go through it
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Lone Ranger
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« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2017, 11:43:04 am »

Cat is looking at the door and wondering why the hell he should have to pay to go through it

Predictable, if nowt else.

Carry on.
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"Theresa May’s determination to pursue hard Brexit = stepping off a 10m diving board without checking there is any water in the pool."
First-Time-Ever Department: The UK is negotiating with the rest of the EU in order to secure a worse trade deal than we already have.
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