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Author Topic: Self determination and the Crimea  (Read 16071 times)
Red Herring
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« on: February 27, 2014, 01:58:43 am »

Things are hotting up in the Crimea.

Interestingly - the Crimea used to be part of Russia, and apparently it was Khruschev who moved it into the Ukraine in 1954. Of course back then it wasn't a big deal as they were both part of the USSR so it was effectively just an administrative change - but when the USSR broke up Ukraine took the Crimea along with her. The population is just over 58% Russian, and is only 24% Ukrainian, then 12% are Tartars.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#In_the_Soviet_Union

Pro-Russia local militias appear to have taken over government buildings in the region, and Russia has made it abundantly clear that she plans to defend the interests of the Russians there.

This is an extremely awkward situation, and reminds me of earlier discussions about self-determination and Scotland. It seems to me that the Crimeans have a strong case for either independence, or reunification with Russia - as they are effectively a victim of administrative decision taken by the USSR. Perhaps they should be offered some kind of referendum?

Discuss …

Red
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 02:01:02 am by Red Herring » Logged
Myky D
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2014, 02:11:34 am »

"Together we stand, divided we fall."

Freedom for all!
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Red Herring
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2014, 02:55:41 am »

"Together we stand, divided we fall."

Freedom for all!

Ironically, Sevastopol is in the Crimea.

'Together we stand' could cut either way of course - it could be the slogan for either staying with the Ukraine or for reunification with Russia …
 
Red
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everso
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MR. PHILLIPS


« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2014, 04:56:48 am »

Whatever happens, I trust this county will stay well out of it!
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Red Herring
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2014, 05:10:34 am »

Whatever happens, I trust this county will stay well out of it!

Oh don't worry, we will stay out of it (at least militarily) - nobody fucks with Russia, not if they're sane. The last one to try was Hitler, and we all know what happened to him.

The question is more will Russia get involved? The US has (quite reasonably) warned Russia not to interfere with Ukrainian sovereignty. But Russia won't necessarily do what she's told, and might well argue that the Crimea is her 'patch' since it was part of Russia before the USSR stuck it in the Ukraine. Especially if the Russian majority there ask for protection.

Red
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Weyland
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2014, 05:56:59 am »

Oh don't worry, we will stay out of it (at least militarily) - nobody fucks with Russia, not if they're sane. The last one to try was Hitler, and we all know what happened to him.

The question is more will Russia get involved? The US has (quite reasonably) warned Russia not to interfere with Ukrainian sovereignty. But Russia won't necessarily do what she's told, and might well argue that the Crimea is her 'patch' since it was part of Russia before the USSR stuck it in the Ukraine. Especially if the Russian majority there ask for protection.

Red

Not forgetting that Sevastapol is the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and one of their principal naval shipyards is also in the vicinity. They have a very powerful navy.

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Red Herring
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2014, 06:21:38 am »

Not forgetting that Sevastapol is the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and one of their principal naval shipyards is also in the vicinity. They have a very powerful navy.

Indeed. If Russia does get involved in the Crimea I can't see anybody arguing with them.

If any military involvement extends beyond the Crimea ... that's a different matter  Undecided

Red
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Rasta
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2014, 09:30:12 am »

Oh don't worry, we will stay out of it (at least militarily) - nobody fucks with Russia, not if they're sane. The last one to try was Hitler, and we all know what happened to him.

The question is more will Russia get involved? The US has (quite reasonably) warned Russia not to interfere with Ukrainian sovereignty. But Russia won't necessarily do what she's told, and might well argue that the Crimea is her 'patch' since it was part of Russia before the USSR stuck it in the Ukraine. Especially if the Russian majority there ask for protection.

Red

Come on, dude. 70 years ago?  Things have changed just a week bit since then.

Comparing military capital of the strongest countries of the world, there are a couple that could well fuck with Russia.

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Red Herring
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2014, 10:00:50 am »

China and the USA could be a match for Russia, but that doesn't mean they will fuck with her - they won't. Anymore than Russia would fuck with them - the risks would just be too high. I'm optimistic that there will never be a head to head confrontation between the big three. If there ever is it will most likely be the USA vs China over Taiwan, or will be through proxies.

As for comparing with 70 years ago - if anything Russia are stronger now than they were when Hitler invaded them.

Red
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 10:11:31 am by Red Herring » Logged
vanceen
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2014, 10:10:41 am »

Russian determination in fighting off Hitler was indeed impressive, but was by no means the only factor in their victory.

It also helped that Hitler considered himself a military genius following the blitz of Western Europe, and continually gave contradictory and highly questionable orders, diverting forces from where they were most needed.

Also, truly massive amounts of food and war materiel from the US didn't hurt anything.

I wouldn't begrudge them anything. They suffered more than any of the other Allied countries in the war, unless China can be counted.
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Red Herring
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2014, 10:14:53 am »

Russian determination in fighting off Hitler was indeed impressive, but was by no means the only factor in their victory.

It also helped that Hitler considered himself a military genius following the blitz of Western Europe, and continually gave contradictory and highly questionable orders, diverting forces from where they were most needed.

Also, truly massive amounts of food and war materiel from the US didn't hurt anything.

I wouldn't begrudge them anything. They suffered more than any of the other Allied countries in the war, unless China can be counted.

Don't forget the Russian winter - that was another factor. It also did for Napoleon.

Of course it would be more accurate to say that nobody should invade Russia. Some countries have fucked with Russia quite successfully. Afghanistan springs to mind, and Japan.

Red

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Rasta
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2014, 10:26:03 am »

China and the USA could but they won't. Anymore than Russia would fuck with them.

Aye. Unless it actually came down to one or the other threatening invasion of another, nobody is going to fuck with anybody on account of the the other pissing on some third world shite hole, be it Crimea or Iraq.

As for comparing with 70 years ago - if anything Russia are stronger now than they were when Hitler invaded them.
Red

Stronger compared to what? 1940's Nazi Germany?  Or 2014 US and China? Technologically speaking, it's a completely different universe. That hard looking destroyer sitting in the Black Sea could be sent to the bottom of the bay by an unmanned drone. I agree that 2014 Russia is probably stronger than 1944 Russia. But 2014 US is a fuck load stronger than 1944 US.

...and, if I recall, Russia wasn't alone in fighting Germany.  Wink

This is kinda fun: http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison.asp


« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 10:33:32 am by Rasta » Logged

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AnnieOakley
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2014, 10:57:02 am »

I agree.  Upgrades aside, the Moscow was built using 80/90s tech and could be disabled or sunk with a single shot.
It might look tough, but it's about as stealthy as a Princess cruise ship.
Russia..."Proud Fighting Ship of The Motherland!"
US...."Target Practice."
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Weyland
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« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2014, 11:25:19 am »

I agree.  Upgrades aside, the Moscow was built using 80/90s tech and could be disabled or sunk with a single shot.
It might look tough, but it's about as stealthy as a Princess cruise ship.
Russia..."Proud Fighting Ship of The Motherland!"
US...."Target Practice."

I know all that. But it could do a lot of damage nevertheless. And there are plenty more, such as nuclear submarines and heavy-lift space vehicles. Just the first one I found when I Googled russia black sea fleet.

Nobody's saying Russia could beat anyone else, just that it's advisable not to fuck with them, especially with Putin's attitude. The UK couldn't beat a paper bag, but they could make a helluva a mess of it trying. Same with the Taliban, Viet Cong, Lehman Bros, RBS, etc, etc.
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AnnieOakley
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2014, 12:34:09 pm »

The Moscow is best where it is, steaming around a little lake with its shirt off.  animated laugh
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 12:43:42 pm by AnnieOakley » Logged

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Weyland
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2014, 12:43:04 pm »

The Moscow is best where it is, steaming around a little lake with it's shirt off.  animated laugh

No problem, then. The Russians renting a military base in another country is no problem. At least it's not Guantanamo.

[It's its.]
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AnnieOakley
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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2014, 12:44:01 pm »

Me fix.
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AnnieOakley
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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2014, 12:48:12 pm »

Quote
....Afghanistan springs to mind....

Plucky little bastards, aindey?
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Red Herring
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« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2014, 02:38:22 pm »

Aye. Unless it actually came down to one or the other threatening invasion of another, nobody is going to fuck with anybody on account of the the other pissing on some third world shite hole, be it Crimea or Iraq.

  Cheesy

Why so defensive Rasta? It wasn't my intention to threaten your masculinity Grin

For what it's worth the Crimea isn't a "third world shit hole" and if the chips were down, would probably welcome an invasion by Russia far more than Iraq welcomed invasion by the coalition.

Quote
Stronger compared to what? 1940's Nazi Germany?  Or 2014 US and China? Technologically speaking, it's a completely different universe. That hard looking destroyer sitting in the Black Sea could be sent to the bottom of the bay by an unmanned drone. I agree that 2014 Russia is probably stronger than 1944 Russia. But 2014 US is a fuck load stronger than 1944 US.

Stronger comparative to 1940s Russia's strength compared to other nations of the time. Russia was not a strong military power when Hitler invaded. He underestimated their resistance, their ruthlessness, their size and the coldness of their winter, much as Napoleon did just over a hundred years before.

Quote
...and, if I recall, Russia wasn't alone in fighting Germany.  Wink

No, it wasn't - but it did do most of the heavy lifting and took most of the casualties. Not that it deserves much credit for that. Stalin made a pact with Hitler, and only went to war with Germany in self-defence after Hitler started a war with Russia (which was the most spectacularly stupid thing Hitler did in WW2 and which lost him everything).

Red
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Red Herring
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« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2014, 02:43:31 pm »

Plucky little bastards, aindey?

Aghanistan is exceptionally plucky.

So far they have seen off the British Empire, the USSR, and the USA.

Next up …. China Cheesy

Not bad for a third world shit hole  Cool

Red
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 02:46:59 pm by Red Herring » Logged
Red Herring
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« Reply #20 on: February 27, 2014, 02:56:29 pm »

Nobody's saying Russia could beat anyone else, just that it's advisable not to fuck with them.

Indeed - and just to make Annie and Rasta feel better, I am quite happy to agree that no one fucks with the US either (apart from those pesky little nations that fuck with everyone, like Afghanistan and Vietnam).

Red
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 02:59:27 pm by Red Herring » Logged
Weyland
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« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2014, 02:59:49 pm »

 Cheesy

Why so defensive Rasta? It wasn't my intention to threaten your masculinity Grin

For what it's worth the Crimea isn't a "third world shit hole" and if the chips were down, would probably welcome an invasion by Russia far more than Iraq welcomed invasion by the coalition.

Stronger comparative to 1940s Russia's strength compared to other nations of the time. Russia was not a strong military power when Hitler invaded. He underestimated their resistance, their ruthlessness, their size and the coldness of their winter, much as Napoleon did just over a hundred years before.

No, it wasn't - but it did do most of the heavy lifting and took most of the casualties. Not that it deserves much credit for that. Stalin made a pact with Hitler, and only went to war with Germany in self-defence after Hitler started a war with Russia (which was the most spectacularly stupid thing Hitler did in WW2 and which lost him everything).

Red

And just in case that wasn't stupid enough, six months later when his pals in Japan attacked the USA he declared war on them as well. Must've seemed like a good idea at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSYk8ofhYFY&index=2&list=PLA20DAC818C423798

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Red Herring
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« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2014, 03:12:35 pm »

And just in case that wasn't stupid enough, six months later when his pals in Japan attacked the USA he declared war on them as well. Must've seemed like a good idea at the time.

Hi Weyland,

I recommend this very short, but very readable book about Hitler:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Meaning-Hitler-Sebastian-Haffner/dp/1857998782

Haffner's theory is that Hitler declared war on the United States because he knew that Germany was going to lose the war with Russia, and wanted Germany to crash and burn because he felt that the German people had failed.

Basically - when Hitler declared war on the US he was throwing his toys out of the pram because he knew he was going to lose the war with Russia.

Red

 
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 03:42:55 pm by Red Herring » Logged
AnnieOakley
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« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2014, 03:17:04 pm »

Red's correct--don't mess with us.  We're loopy on guns, caffeine, prescription drugs, corn sweeteners and crap beer.
 Grin
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Red Herring
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« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2014, 03:19:44 pm »

Red's correct--don't mess with us.  We're loopy on guns, caffeine, prescription drugs, corn sweeteners and crap beer.
 Grin

To be honest … it's the bombs we're all worried about Cheesy

Red
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